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The Latest Breaking News from Sanam Vakil

'Pragmatists' vs 'hardliners': Is Iran split over US deal?

Despite internal divisions and opposition, analysts believe Iran's factional splits won't derail ongoing talks with the US. While hardliners express discontent, a consensus appears to favor testing the waters for a deal. New leaders, less ideological than their predecessors, may seek to transform Iran's global relationships, though the path ahead…

The Economic Times

Iran and the US both think they are winning the war. The truth is they are both losing

The current ceasefire has held just enough to prevent a return to all-out war, but neither side is close to achieving peace, says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

How the Mideast war brought UAE, Israel closer together

After facing barrages of Iranian missiles that threatened its economic future, the UAE has moved closer to Israel, widening a split with ally-turned-rival Saudi Arabia and placing it in defiant opposition to Tehran. But its closer cooperation with Israel risks further antagonising Iran, which the UAE views as its biggest…

The Economic Times

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Sensing an edge, Iran 'ready to gamble' it can outlast Trump

Iran's leadership is betting it can outlast an under-pressure Donald Trump in its peace negotiations with Washington, but its defiance risks renewed military confrontation and further stoking domestic tensions, analysts say.in Tehran that Trump and Israel could no longer wield the threat of military action to pressure the leadership.

The Economic Times

'Overplayed its hand before': Iran bets Trump will blink first - will the gamble work?

Iran is betting it can outlast President Trump's term in high-stakes negotiations, employing brinkmanship and economic pain tolerance. Analysts warn this strategy, centered on weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, risks escalating into renewed war if Iran overplays its hand.

The Times of India

The Iran crisis is far from over – instead we are entering a new and uncertain phase

The ceasefire is welcome but fragile. Friday’s talks in Islamabad must address Iran’s nuclear programme and avoid sidelining the rest of the region, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

The war in Iran is ripping up the Gulf’s plan for stability

As missiles fall from the sky and energy infrastructure is targeted, the limitations of relying on the US for protection are becoming all too obvious, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

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US and Israel’s strategy to kill Iran’s top figures may prove counterproductive

Attempt to ‘decapitate’ state may harden resistance instead of destabilising regime

The Guardian - UK

‘Worst nightmare’: anger and frustration as Gulf states bear brunt of war they did not start

Closure of strait of Hormuz puts pressure on region’s economies amid growing resentment about conflict started by US and Israel

The Guardian - UK

Who Will Lead Iran After Khamenei's Death? Meet the 5 Candidates Fighting for Supreme Power

Iran faces a succession crisis as the death of Ayatollah Khamenei leaves the country in turmoil. With clerics unable to convene due to ongoing strikes, political instability looms as rivals vie for power.

International Business Times UK

Iran may yet endure this war, but the Islamic Republic as we have known it cannot survive unchanged

The regime may now have to meet Trump’s demands merely to save itself. And he needs a coherent plan to deal with what he has unleashed, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

War, a Trump-imposed deal or internal regime collapse: for Tehran, none of the options are good

Iran’s leaders now face unprecedented peril. The regime has lost its footing, and the global mechanisms to avoid conflict no longer work, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

With thousands dead, the Iranian regime may survive these protests – but not in its current form

With fear, surveillance and brute force only set to increase, there are disturbing parallels with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

This isn’t a real ceasefire in Gaza – it’s a holding pattern before war returns

Israel’s airstrikes have exposed the fragility of Trump’s ‘peace plan’. Without international support, it risks crumbling altogether, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

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The Guardian - UK

Israel has replaced Iran as the biggest security threat to the Gulf states

As the US waits on the sidelines, Israel’s actions – as evidenced by the attack on Doha – are becoming increasingly audacious, says Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme

Al Jazeera

The price of mediation? How Qatar could respond to Israel’s attack

The attack has called into question how Qatar might respond, the future of its mediator role, and its defence alliances.

The Independent UK

Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in quiet Qatar shocks Gulf allies, tests US ties

The tiny, wealthy Gulf Arab state of Qatar has long hosted the biggest American military base in the Middle East

The Guardian - UK

US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities is Trump’s biggest gamble yet as president

Much could go wrong for the US and the Middle East as Trump and Netanyahu pursue the disempowerment of Iran

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The Guardian - UK

Tuesday briefing: What Israel really wants in Iran – and what might come next

In today’s newsletter: Whether or not regime change is even desirable to Benjamin Netanyahu, a sudden transformation in Tehran looks very unlikely

International Business Times

Gulf Countries Fear Israel-Iran Spillover

Gulf countries on Friday unanimously condemned Israel's strikes on Iran, fearing an escalation that could threaten economic interests and security.

The Guardian - UK

International opinion has rounded on Israel, but it’s not enough to force Netanyahu’s hand

Condemnation alone won’t change Israel’s trajectory. For that, concrete action on sanctions and Palestinian statehood is required, says Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme

International Business Times

Trump's Return Boosts Israel's Pro-settlement Right: Experts

US President Donald Trump's return to power has emboldened Israeli leaders' push to increase military presence in Gaza and reinvigorated right-wing ambitions to annex the occupied West Bank, experts say.

The Guardian - UK

Israel has chosen military occupation over a ceasefire in Gaza. Where does this end?

The latest escalation and attempts to dismantle the Palestinian leadership are utterly at odds with peace negotiations, says Chatham House research fellow Sanam Vakil

The Guardian - UK

Fear and uncertainty in Golan Heights as Israeli troops drive deeper into Syria

On the high rocky plateau, the fall of Bashar al-Assad has sown complicated and contradictory emotions

The Guardian - UK

Can Syrian rebels maintain momentum and take Damascus?

Assad’s forces have offered little resistance so far, as attention turns to how his allies will react

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