England are guaranteed a top-three finish in their World Cup group, though progression to the knockout stages has not yet been confirmed.
After beating Croatia 4-2 in their opening game and then being held to a goalless draw by Ghana, the Three Lions sit at the summit of Group L having accumulated four points from a possible six so far.
Level on points with Ghana, who beat Panama 1-0 before Tuesday’s stalemate in Boston, England lead the way by virtue of a slightly superior goal difference, which is now the secondary tiebreaker in use at this World Cup when two teams finish level on points during the group stage, behind head-to-head record.
A victory over Ghana would have sealed England’s passage through to the last 32 with a game to spare. A draw obviously puts them level on head to head.
Croatia’s 1-0 win over Panama, who are officially eliminated from the tournament, means Thomas Tuchel’s side can finish no lower than third in Group L, and with four points on the board, it would take an extraordinary set of results for England to be heading home early.
To guarantee qualification for the newly-created round of 32 at this expanded 48-team World Cup, the minimum requirement for the Three Lions is a point against Panama in New Jersey on Saturday.
Although, that would leave them at risk of finishing as runners-up should there be a winner between Ghana and Croatia, a game that kicks off at the same time in Philadelphia.
Simply put, a win for England will confirm top spot as long as Ghana do not beat Croatia by a margin that is greater than theirs by two.
A draw against Panama coupled with Ghana drawing with Croatia would also be enough to progress as group winners because of goal difference.
Where it gets tricky is in the event of the Three Lions suffering a shock loss to Panama. In that scenario, England can only finish top if Ghana do not overtake them on goal difference.
If England and Ghana finish level on points with the same head-to-head record, the same goal difference in head-to-head matches, same number of goals scored in head-to-head matches and same goal difference in all group stage matches, then it will come down to greatest number of goals scored in all group stage matches to separate them.
Having netted four against Croatia, England are currently ahead on that metric with Ghana only scoring once so far.
How England can finish third
If England and Ghana both lose their final group games, then Croatia will top the group with six points. Though the scorelines in each fixture will determine who finishes second and third.
For example, if Croatia beat Ghana 1-0 and England lose 3-0 to Panama, the Black Stars would claim the runners-up spot due to having a goal difference of zero compared to -1 for the Three Lions.
That said, even if England were to finish third, they are almost certain to reach the knockout phase as their current points total is greater than every single current third-placed ranked team ahead of the final round of group games.
The best eight third-placed teams will join the 12 group winners and 12 group runners-up in the last 32.
