On Thursday, Australia and Paraguay will clash in each team’s final group game of the 2026 World Cup, with automatic qualification up for grabs for one of them.
Australia started their Group D campaign with a 2-0 win over Turkey, while Paraguay fell 4-1 to co-hosts USA. Then, on gameday 2, Australia were beaten 2-0 by USA, while Paraguay saw off Turkey 1-0 despite going down to 10 men.
Due to a change in rules for this World Cup, the second deciding factor in the final table of a group (after points of course) is the head-to-head record between teams – not goal difference, as was the case in previous years.
With this in mind, USA have already sewn up top spot and qualified for the knockout stage, and Turkey have already been eliminated, ahead of the tie between those nations on Thursday.
But what of Australia and Paraguay?
One of these two teams will advance as the second-placed side in the group, while the other will have to hope they are one of the best eight third-placed nations at the tournament.
In other words, the winner between Australia and Paraguay would qualify for the knockouts for certain (on 6 points), while the losers’ fate (3 points overall) would only be clear by the end of the group stage.
However, if the game were a draw, Australia and Paraguay would both finish on 4 points, with goal difference finally coming into play. Given Australia’s is 0 and Paraguay’s is -2 – with these remaining the same in the case of a draw – Australia would qualify in second place ahead of Paraguay. As such, Paraguay would be left waiting on other results, to see if they were one of the eight best third-placed teams. It is very possible that 4 points would be enough for them.
