“We need to keep believing and approach every single day like we did from day one: Believing we could win,” Mauricio Pochettino declared after joining in with the crowd’s chants of “U-S-A!” following a giddy victory over Australia.
Pochettino isn’t the only one who thinks the U.S. men’s national team can lift the World Cup trophy in July after his side produced a pair of convincing victories to start the competition on home soil. Yet, while those optimists remain in the general minority, the USMNT’s chances of making a deep run this summer have been boosted by a seemingly favorable path through the knockout stages.
With just one round of group stage games left to play, the fuzzy picture of the knockout stage bracket is becoming a little clearer—even if FIFA’s convoluted format still offers plenty of variation over the coming week.
Group Stage
Winners and runners-up
| Group | Projected Winner | Projected Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| A | Mexico | South Korea |
| B | Switzerland | Canada |
| C | Brazil | Morocco |
| D | USMNT | Australia |
| E | Germany | Côte d’Ivoire |
| F | Netherlands | Japan |
| G | Egypt | Belgium |
| H | Spain | Cabo Verde |
| I | France | Norway |
| J | Argentina | Austria |
| K | Portugal | Colombia |
| L | England | Croatia |
Thanks to the new head-to-head tiebreaker introduced by FIFA for this year’s group stage, several nations booked their spot in the knockout rounds as group winners with one game to spare. Co-hosts Mexico and the USMNT were the two first before being shortly followed by Germany and Argentina.
France and Norway both began with a perfect haul of six points and the pair will meet on gameweek three to decide the victor. Erling Haaland’s pessimism—“They’re probably going to win against us,” he shrugged, “they’re probably going to win the whole tournament.”—is understandable. Had Norway not conceded a late consolation goal from Senegal’s Ismaïla Sarr, Haaland and Co. could have secured top spot with a draw against France. Now a win is needed.
Spain hasn’t wrapped up top spot in Group H either, but can do so with a victory against Uruguay. Marcelo Bielsa's desperately underwhelming South Americans need a result of their own to avoid the humiliation of being leapfrogged by Cabo Verde. If the tiny African island avoids defeat to Saudi Arabia—which would be the third-most surprising result of its summer—Cabo Verde will be playing World Cup knockout soccer.
There is an indirect shootout in Group F, with the Netherlands and Japan effectively trying to outscore each other in their final first-round games against Tunisia and Sweden respectively to finish top.
Best third-place teams
| Group | Team |
|---|---|
| B | Bosnia & Herzegovina |
| C | Scotland |
| D | Paraguay |
| F | Sweden |
| G | Iran |
| I | Senegal |
| J | Algeria |
| L | Ghana |
Spare a thought for the 2010 iteration of New Zealand. The All Whites were the only team in the entire tournament (including eventual champion Spain) to go through the World Cup in South Africa without losing a game, yet still didn’t make it into the knockouts. This time around, several teams who have been beaten twice will qualify for the round of 32.
Three points and a decent goal difference will likely be enough. By that logic, Scotland needs to avoid a thrashing from Brazil to continue the Tartan Army’s journey through American breweries. Ghana could still lose to Croatia and advance in third place after battling to a point against England, yet Senegal has work to do.
After defeats to France and Norway, the dethroned AFCON champion must rack up a healthy victory over Iraq to harbor any hope of progression. If Pape Thiaw can shake this wonderfully talented group of players out of their collective funk, a big win should be well within their capabilities.
Round of 32
USMNT Back Themselves
As Pochettino and his legion of proudly American players have been at pains to point out, they back themselves in any matchup. The wider world would share that confidence if the USMNT is paired with Bosnia & Herzegovina in the round of 32.
The battling side spearheaded by a 40-year-old Edin Džeko still has work to do to get through the group, but a win over Qatar is hardly out of the question. Whether Bosnia & Herzegovina and its mass of boisterous fans can muscle past a co-host coasting on a wave of patriotric jubilation is another matter entirely.
Brazil’s potential date with Japan would be the most mouth-watering fixture of the second round. Should the Seleção top Group C (which is by no means a guarantee with Morocco to consider) and Japan finish second to the Netherlands, the pair would be set on a crash course in Houston.
The line of coaches queueing up to compliment the Samurai Blue grows with each week of this World Cup and there is every chance that Hajime Moriyasu’s side pulls off an historic result against Brazil. On the balance of form, it wouldn’t even be considered an earth-shattering shock.
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| June 28, 2026 | South Korea vs. Canada | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| June 29, 2026 | Brazil vs. Japan | NRG Stadium, Houston |
| June 29, 2026 | Germany vs. Paraguay | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough |
| June 29, 2026 | Netherlands vs. Morocco | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe |
| June 30, 2026 | Côte d’Ivoire vs. Norway | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| June 30, 2026 | France vs. Sweden | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford |
| June 30, 2026 | Mexico vs. Scotland | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City |
| July 1, 2026 | England vs. Senegal | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
| July 1, 2026 | Egypt vs. Algeria | Lumen Field, Seattle |
| July 1, 2026 | USMNT vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara |
| July 2, 2026 | Spain vs. Austria | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| July 2, 2026 | Colombia vs. Croatia | BMO Field, Toronto |
| July 2, 2026 | Switzerland vs. Iran | BC Place, Vancouver |
| July 3, 2026 | Australia vs. Belgium | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| July 3, 2026 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami |
| July 3, 2026 | Portugal vs. Ghana | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City |
Round of 16
England Head to the Azteca
A trip to Mexico City’s iconic Estadio Azteca may not come with easy access, an absence of stress or any WiFi, but it does offer a window into World Cups of years gone by.
In that exact spot Pelé nonchalantly rolled the ball into the path of an onrushing Carlos Alberto; that touchline was where Franz Beckenbauer had his arm put into a sling to keep playing against Italy; over there Raúl Jiménez dedicated his first World Cup goal to his late father.
England’s memories of that legendary pitch are not so positive. It was under the iconic sun-shaped shadow in 1986 that Diego Maradona humiliated Argentina’s fierce foes, scoring two goals which perfectly embodied the national ideal of cunning and craft. The Three Lions could find themselves back in Mexico’s capital against the co-host in a round-of-16 tie for the ages.
While France may very well duke it out with Germany on an Independence Day to savor, the U.S. could be up against Egypt. Mohamed Salah inspired his team of dogged battlers to a rare win in one of the tournament’s oddest groups. Iran’s difficulties can be easily explained while New Zealand is simply content not to be the whipping boys anymore, but Belgium has been a major disappointment. If the Red Devils don’t turn it around on gameweek three, it is Egypt who would be on course to meet the USMNT.
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Canada vs. Netherlands | NRG Stadium, Houston |
| July 4, 2026 | Germany vs. France | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia |
| July 5, 2026 | Japan vs. Norway | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford |
| July 5, 2026 | Mexico vs. England | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City |
| July 6, 2026 | Colombia vs. Spain | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| July 6, 2026 | USMNT vs. Egypt | Lumen Field, Seattle |
| July 7, 2026 | Argentina vs. Belgium | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
| July 7, 2026 | Switzerland vs. Portugal | BC Place, Vancouver |
Quarterfinals
Where the USMNT May Run Out of Road
If the aforementioned sequence of opponents plays out as expected, the USMNT could theoretically take on Spain at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles in the quarterfinals. This would be the fixture which defines whether Pochettino’s side has enjoyed a good tournament, or a summer for the ages.
The one question mark which continues to hang over the USMNT like a dark cloud is the capacity to defeat a highly ranked European nation. The last time any iteration of the Stars and Stripes put together such a result was back in 2015 with a 2–1 friendly win over Germany a year after it was crowned world champion.
Any clash of this nature under Pochettino has ended in convincing defeat, the most recent examples of which came last March when Belgium and Portugal thumped the U.S. by an aggregate score of 7–2.
A quarterfinal for a host nation would naturally capture the imagination, but there is the real risk that Argentina’s clash with Portugal overpowers everything else. The first-ever World Cup meeting between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo has been speculated since the draw was made last December.
It’s fair to say that the protagonists of this hypothetical duel are not as excited as the neutrals. Ronaldo questioned the very premise of this potential matchup when it was put to him, offering little more than a non-committal prediction that it would be “top.”
| Date | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | France vs. Netherlands | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough |
| July 10, 2026 | Spain vs. USMNT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| July 11, 2026 | Japan vs. England | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami |
| July 11, 2026 | Argentina vs. Portugal | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City |
Semifinals
France vs. Spain
When France took on Spain in the semifinal of Euro 2024, it was framed as a battle of defense against attack. Didier Deschamps has even more forward-thinking talent at his disposal this summer, but there is the expectation that Les Bleus will once again build from a solid base of caution.
Spain’s penchant for control through possession should play into the hands of France, who would welcome the space behind the backline created by La Roja pushing up the pitch.
Lamine Yamal got the better of France two summers ago, inspired by Adrien Rabiot’s unwise pregame barb. “Move in silence,” the teenager warned. “Only speak when it’s time to say checkmate.” If France’s rearguard can be as tightly sealed as Rabiot’s mouth this time around, it could be a different outcome.
England vs. Argentina
The World Cup semifinal may seem like another galaxy for England after failing to score against Ghana, but very few opponents will be so openly and obdurately defensive minded as Carlos Queiroz’s side—after all, most teams will try to win games.
Thomas Tuchel is keen to not frame England as one of the favorites—a status held by Argentina—but as a side which should be in the conversation. “I heard recently a quote from Rafa Nadal,” the German boss mused pre-tournament, “who said, ‘I’m not a winner, I am a competitor, I’m a challenger.’
“That is basically how I arrive in the U.S. for this tournament. I arrive with hunger, I arrive with excitement and I arrive as a competitor and as a challenger.” That challenge could well be ended by one of the few athletes comparable with Nadal.
Final
France vs. Argentina
“The ball might go in, it might not,” Lionel Scaloni theorized on the eve of the tournament, refusing to be drawn on a prediction for the defending champion. “That Argentina is always one of the teams that brings the World Cup to life, that’s more than obvious.”
Lionel Messi has swiftly lived up to his manager’s billing, quickening the pulse of a lively tournament with a spellbinding start. Should Messi maintain his form and continue to be superbly supported by the cabal of grown-up kids who had posters of their captain on the walls of their childhood bedrooms, a final should be in Argentina’s grasp.
Only time will tell if the same fortune will smile upon the Albiceleste in a rematch with France. As Scaloni said: “The ball might go in, it might not.”
